It might seem like nothing good can come from tougher grading boundaries for this year’s cohort of A Level and GCSE students, who will receive their exam results imminently. But new data reveals that Covid-related grade inflation may be backfiring on students who were assessed during the pandemic – with some educationalists suggesting that this year’s school graduates could be in a better position long-term than their pandemic predecessors, despite their expected lower grades.
Recent figures show that students whose A Levels were awarded during Covid are dropping out of university at a record rate, with drop-outs from UK universities surging by more than 20% since before Covid, according to statistics gathered by the Student Loans Company (SLC).
The number of students withdrawing from their higher education institution within the academic year has skyrocketed from 26,965 in 2018/2019, to 32,623 in 2022/2023 – suggesting that the impact of the more generous teacher-awarded grades given during the pandemic may finally be taking its toll.
It’s a situation that has become worse over recent years, with the SLC seeing an overall increase of 9% in student withdrawal notifications in the academic year 2022/23, compared to the same point in the year 2021/22.
Although these figures are subject to fluctuation and should be treated with caution, the trend is supported by data from the Office for Students (OfS), which reported that around 30% of students have been dropping out of some UK university courses. This figure is only expected to rise further due to another indirect pandemic by-product – the rising cost of living – with the OfS also reporting that almost one in five students say they have considered dropping out of university or college because of financial pressures.
Setting students up to fail?
The changes in how A-Levels and GCSEs were awarded during the pandemic saw a big increase in top grades. In 2021, 44 per cent of teacher-awarded A level grades were A or A*, compared with 25 per cent in 2019, the last year when national exams took place.
Although this might seem like a benefit for those students, a record number of whom left school with grades high enough to get them into the universities of their choice, the recent data about rising drop-out rates have led some to speculate that these same students have not been properly prepared for university life and have struggled to keep up with the pace of courses that they may not have got into in a non-pandemic year.
All this is set to change in 2023, with around 75,000 fewer A* and A grades expected to be awarded this year compared with last summer, and an estimated one in five teenagers expected to miss their first choice of university offer.
While students and parents may panic at this prospect, educationalists argue that it is a necessary and helpful step. UK Education secretary Gillian Keegan wrote in the Sunday Times newspaper:
“During the pandemic, results were higher because of the way grades were assessed – now grades will be lower than last year and more similar to 2019. Pupils and parents might wonder why.
“It is vital that qualifications hold value so that universities and employers understand the distinction between grades when recruiting, and pupils get the opportunities they deserve.”
One unnamed source told the paper:
“It is not in young people’s interests to have grading arrangements that do not appropriately support their progression.”
Some experts have warned that students who received inflated grades during their pandemic-era GCSEs may take a harder hit than normal in their A-Levels.
Nick Hillman, director of the Higher Education Policy Institute, told the Guardian that he feels sorry for the 2023 cohort:
“I really feel for the 2023 generation. On paper they look like a bunch of geniuses, because they got their GCSE results in the year of highest grade inflation. But now with their A-level results they will suddenly be among the most disadvantaged.”
One Dubai-based educational psychologist, who asked to remain anonymous, told SchoolsCompared:
“I wouldn’t blame it on specifically A Level grade inflation, but from a clinical perspective and educational perspective there is a lot going on here.
“There is no question that there has been significant grade inflation over the pandemic. At that point it was done with the best interests of the student at heart. But it’s not working out. As we are getting back to normal, students are struggling everywhere.”
Ofqual, which regulates A Level and GCSE exam boards in the UK, says the decision to move back to pre-pandemic marking is in everyone’s interests:
“It’s important that we move towards normality to set students up for college, university or employment in the best possible way, and help them to make choices about their future.”
However, the regulators add, there will still be some grading protection for the Class of 2023, which may be some solace for those who are feeling worried about their results:
“Because of the disruption caused by the pandemic, examiners will be slightly lenient when setting grade boundaries for GCSE, AS and A level.”
The Other Side of the Story – Why it is Not Clear Cut
Around half of students who do attend students with low grades, who are then given a place at university, achieve very highly later. This suggests that many students develop late and that, just because a student underperforms at GCSE or A Level, it does not mean, or follow, that they are not, or will not, be a good fit for university. By trusting so much in cut-off in exams at 16 and 18, many students, according to this data, are being denied opportunities that they should be given. Again, some put this down to grade inflation in universities, but many argue instead that the level of progression seen later shows that many young people simply ‘find their mojo’ later. In 2021-22, 25.2% of university students who achieved three D Grades at A Level, went on to achieve a first-class degree – and 79.6% of these students who would logically have been prevented going to university, went on to achieve either a First or Second-Class degree.
On this basis students who achieve less this year than they expected in their A Levels – and even students who achieve the low grades that they did expect, should not see this as definitive evidence that they could not go on to achieve at the highest levels at university. For students, regardless of their grades, who are absolutely set on study at university, opportunities in Clearing should be pursued with a passion – and, on this evidence, many universities are realising that they should be given a chance – and many could absolutely achieve, against expectation, and at the highest levels, later.
We wish the best of luck to everyone waiting to receive their A Level results this Thursday – stay tuned to SchoolsCompared.com for our live coverage of events as they unfold throughout the day.
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