2023 IGCSE Results and GCSE Results in UAE Schools – What can we Expect?

Many students sitting for their GCSE or IGCSE examinations may well, with good reason, feel like a UK government statistical experiment. This has been a two years in UAE school history like no other for schools and students – and significant periods of UAE student study has been conducted over Distance Learning. Many students too have themselves been unwell during this period, or experienced the illness of loved ones. Many students have certainly suffered impacts on their mental health. However, rightly or wrongly, and we side with the latter, it now looks certain, following last week’s A Level grades, that the UK government’s call for examination grade thresholds to be returned to the pre-Pandemic level of 2019 and earlier, is set to be enforced rigidly.

This means, this Thursday, that I/GCSE results, despite the many challenges the 2023 I/GCSE cohort has faced during the Covid years, will see students treated as if the last two years did not happen – and be graded on that basis.

The basic fact is we can expect this year a major drop in Grade 7, 8 and 9 Grades (those broadly relating to A*A grades in the old grading system). This drop will impact on more than 100,000 students worldwide. In total there will be more than 300,000 lower grades. Relative drops c an be expected across all grades.

It is difficult to be accurate with UAE grades. However, in the UK, for GCSE, in 2019, 20.6% of entries were awarded at Grades 7 to 9. In 2021 this rose to 28.5%. Last year the figure was 26%. It should have been a half-way house drop to 24%, but last year the Exam Boards refused to drop so quickly. This year’s drop will, as a result, be much steeper.

There is complexity using this reference. First, IGCSE examinations, are, on the whole, arguably, “”easier”” than their GCSE counterparts, and, second, the majority of UAE schools sit for the IGCSE. In the UK, many private schools also sit for the IGCSE. State schools in the UK are not allowed to sit for IGCSE examinations. Second, private schools in the UK, and in the UAE, outperform the UK state sector.

In real terms, whatever the debates about IGCSE versus GCSE, and public schools overseas, in the UK and their state school counterparts, students are students – and this year’s results are not going to be fair on any normal definition of the word to any of them.

Do I/GCSE Grades and Results Matter this Year?

Does it matter? The answer is yes.

First, it really does matter in two subjects: English and Mathematics. Many employers demand, regardless of whether students go on to study for A Levels, BTEC, or eventually a degree, that all employees have a pass at I/GCSE in English and Mathematics at Grade4/5 or above. British universities, regardless of which degree is being proposed, demand the same Grade 4 pass in English and in Mathematics. This is why, if students “fail” either of these subjects, you can expect schools in the UAE to immediately enroll those students in classes to re-sit them.

Second, schools in the UAE, as worldwide, use GCSE grades to decide whether students can continue to study for their chosen subject and qualification pathways between the age of 16 years and 18 years.  We expect schools to be generous this year. They know their students – and if any student achieves a score in a deciding I/GCSE subject that does not reflect their abilities, we expect schools to err on the side of kindness in allowing the student to progress to their chosen post 16 study options.

Traditionally, schools in the UAE look for students achieving a minimum of around 7 I/GCSEs at Grade 4/5 or above to continue for study at A Level, and for Grades 6 to 9 in the A Level subjects being continued at A Level, or most closely related to the proposed A Level subject to be studied at A Level. The same is give, or take, true of BTEC study.

Finally, if a student is set on moving school to study at Sixth Form elsewhere, many schools will look at GCSE results to decide if they will be accepted. The UAEs most selective schools will be looking for very high I/GCSE grades – and, in many cases, gifts in one or more areas like Sport or the Performing Arts.

It’s worth noting too, that I/GCSEs tend to matter to schools, because many parents look to the grades achieved by schools to decide whether they are good schools. We think that there should be a note of caution here. Obviously, you would expect selective or partially selective schools to achieve higher grades. Many schools too, welcome children for whom examinations are simply not a good metric to determine how good they are or otherwise. Finally, grades do not reflect the majority of aspects of school life that make up how a school is traditionally defined as outstanding. They do not tell you the breadth of subject choice offered to students, or the breadth of qualification pathways. They do not tell you anything about the whole child offer of a school. Finally, they do not tell you how happy children are in a school.

I/GCSEs certainly do not mean as much as they use to. Historically, many students left school at 16 to begin work, without pursuing further study. IGCSEs were the reference used by employers. This is no longer the case. Today, education, or training, is compulsory for all students studying in the UK and a given in the UAE too. In practice, this means that for students who want to leave school or study, in the UK, the only option is an apprenticeship or to join the UK’s military forces. Today, for students not intending to go to university, employers will be looking at A Level and BTEC grades, not GCSEs.

Understanding Grades – Old and New

Understanding Grades continues to baffle many parents who are used to the older system of letter grades.

This is how, approximately, the current system translates:

* These are post-O’ Level Grades. During the older O Level and A Level years, an A* was broadly equivalent to an A, with grades following dropping by one grade.

In theory, because grades work on grade boundaries, rather than the performance of students absolutely, exams each year should award the same splay of gradings. This means that a student could theoretically score an A this year that a student scored an A* on last year, because less students answered the question to the higher standard last year. This also means that all students, theoretically, should secure the exact same grades that they would have achieved were the examinations being run in 2019. This is, of course, theoretical, as it does not take into account the very different experiences of students during Covid.

The sooner, every year, we all start treating students as people, rather than statistics, and look beyond the grades, the better.     

I/GCSE Results in 2023 – Our Summary of What you Can Expect.

In practical terms then, we can expect some fall-out from the Covid years. This said, we can, and should, expect schools also to mitigate these.

Ultimately, beyond the need for all students to secure a Grade 4 Pass or above in English and Mathematics, we expect all schools to look at students individually, and in the round, when making decisions on their future options at Sixth Form.

We do not expect many cases where students are prevented from studying the A Level or BTEC subjects they want to study because of weaker than expected, or deserved, GCSE grades.

For those students who do miss a Grade 4 Pass in English and Mathematics, they can expect to be given parallel stream classes to re-sit these during Sixth Form.

All that matters now, is for all of us to be ready to congratulate all I/GCSE students and schools, without qualification, for surviving what has been an extremely challenging two years – or worse, distressing ones.

On any standard of logic or ethics, every student, and all their teachers, deserve our fullest support and compassion.

Join us for GCSE Results day this Thursday 24^th August 2023 on SchoolsCompared.com as we tell the stories that matter most…

Further information

Read our full story on A Level and BTEC results this year – and learn how the Covid 19 generation of students faired here.

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