In a perfect storm of worries for UAE students waiting for their A Level and GCSE results, it is claimed that this year’s results days will see:
- Exam Boards and the British Government forcing through a crack down on grade inflation with a severe adjustment downwards of A Level and GCSE grades to make them closer to pre-pandemic levels after the inflated levels of the last two years. The number of students receiving top grades will be reduced by 10% – around the halfway point between the pre-pandemic levels of 2019 and the high levels awarded in 2021
- A record number of students being rejected from their first choice universities
- The number of available university places falling to the lowest level on record since university expansion with the number of students holding firm offers falling
- Full fee paying International students in the UAE, those that do not pay home fees, being prioritised for places at top universities over home fee students as universities choose students who deliver higher revenue
- Many students being advised not to go to university at all this year given graduate unemployment, poorly paid employment prospects and debt that will never be repaid because of low Graduate fees
- School leavers being advised to seek a year in industry or trying to secure a Degree Apprenticeship instead of going to university, to fast track profile with blue chip employers
According to the British broadsheet, The Telegraph, who have been in contact with OFQUAL:
“Even the brightest students who normally “wouldn’t dream” of missing the terms of their university offer may struggle this year because results will fall below grades predicted by teachers.”
Students are being warned that the days of universities fighting for student places are now over according to commentators and 2022 will be the most competitive for places at British universities on record.
Those students that are at greatest risk are those whose schools who have been generous with predicted grades. Many schools, caught between a rock and a hard place after years of needing to inflate grades to protect students and recognise the heavy tolls on their students of the Covid years may now find themselves caught in an unfair trap as the UK government and regulator begins clawing back grades to pre-pandemic levels.
It also now appears that the limited number of places now available means that international students who pay full fees are being favoured by universities over those that have secured home fees. Many families in the UAE have historically sought to avoid international fees but with competition for places intensifying it may well be that there will now be a price to be paid for this. Only 2,358 courses at Russell Group courses are available in clearing, compared to 3,085 at this time last year – with the number of places available this year in British universities predicted to fall by over a fifth. The fall in available places has been caused by an overflow of students who deferred places, increased demand post-pandemic from overseas prized full-fee paying students, particularly from China, and growth in the number of UK based mature students. The number of mature students is increasing at British universities in part because of the number of students who are now gaining degrees with resulting drop in graduate employment opportunities and salaries. Further degree study is now seen as a way of graduate differentiating themselves with employers. There are also moves to discontinue degrees with a poor record of securing highly paid employment for graduates, this further predicted to cut the number of available degree courses.
Last year around 45% per cent of all students achieved an A* or A grade in their A-levels – approaching double the number of students compared with pre-pandemic levels. This compared to 38.5 per cent in 2020 when teacher assessed grades were introduced. Prior to the pandemic only around 25% of students were awarded top grades each year. Estimates suggest that up to 100,000 students fewer students globally will achieve top grades.
Finally, many are now asking whether it makes sense to study at university at all with graduate opportunities in industry falling and graduate salary levels dropping. Many graduates are finding themselves employed in work for which degrees are not required, on low salaries- and saddled with debts that average around £50,000. Increasingly students are now fighting for prized Degree Apprenticeships with top employers who both pay the costs of degree study and provide students with work from Day One after leaving school. Other students are being advised to defer degree study in favour of gaining work experience in industry prior to degree study to ensure that they are choosing degrees in an industry that will provide employment on graduation.
The bottom line seems to be those that will be best placed this year for places at British universities will be students who are paying full international fees – and those holding offers that have not been inflated and will be met. Quite regardless, this year will not be the year that the fallout from Covid ceases to take prisoners and treat UAE students fairly. Worrying times will be ahead for many students and it may be well to prepare for eventualities and manage expectations.
If there is one hope that students should hold onto it is that British curriculum schools in the UAE and their teachers are some of the very best in the world – if there is any fairness in all this, it should mean that students here are better able to ride out the storm than most.
We will be covering both A Level Results Day on 18th August 2022 and GCSE Results Day on the 25th August 2022 with live news here from 7:00am on both days, so join us then on SchoolsCompared.com to find out exactly just how policies by the examination boards, OFQUAL and the UK government do impact on all of us in the UAE.
Do you think exam grading will be fair this year? We would love to hear from you. Email [email protected] to share your thoughts.
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